{"id":3985,"date":"2021-04-06T10:12:04","date_gmt":"2021-04-06T08:12:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/?p=3985"},"modified":"2021-04-14T09:58:39","modified_gmt":"2021-04-14T07:58:39","slug":"slavoljub-trisic-algoritam-crnogorske-politike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/index.php\/2021\/04\/06\/slavoljub-trisic-algoritam-crnogorske-politike\/","title":{"rendered":"Slavoljub Tri\u0161i\u0107: ALGORITAM CRNOGORSKE POLITIKE"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Previranjima na politi\u010dkoj sceni Crne Gore, \u010dini se, nikada kraja. <\/strong>Tako ne\u0161to je i bilo za o\u010dekivati nakon smene DPS-a ali te\u0161ko da je neko mogao da predvidi konkretne modalitete tih previranja. To je potvrdilo i poslednjih nekoliko dana za nama, a potvrdi\u0107e i oni dani koji su pred nama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Foto: Sputnik\/Neboj\u0161a Popovi\u0107<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kao polaznu ta\u010dku na\u0161e analize uzimamo izjavu ministra pravde Vladimira Leposavi\u0107a, od 26. marta, kao odgovor na poslani\u010dko pitanje opozicije svom stavu o stradanju u Srebrenici.<\/strong> Tada je, uz nesumnjivo saose\u0107anje sa \u017ertvama, ministar Leposavi\u0107, odbio da okarakteri\u0161e navedeni zlo\u010din pojmom \u201egenocid\u201c. O\u010dekivano, opozicija je ovu izjavu iskoristila za napade na Vladu a, ni\u0161ta manje iznena\u0111uju\u0107e, na sli\u010dnom fonu bio je i potpredsednik vlade Dritan Abazovi\u0107. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ipak, ono \u0161to je mo\u017eda vi\u0161e iznena\u0111uju\u0107e je to da je, 5. aprila, premijer Krivokapi\u0107 na konferenciji za medije obavestio javnost da \u0107e predlo\u017eiti Skup\u0161tini razre\u0161enje ministra Leposavi\u0107a. <\/strong>Te\u0161ko je pretpostaviti \u010diji potpis se krije iza ove premijerove odluke, iako bi mnogi odmah rekli da se radi, ili o Abazovi\u0107evom potpisu, \u0161to \u0107emo videti da mo\u017eda i nije toliko izvesno, ili o nekom drugom centru mo\u0107i (\u010ditaj \u201cambasade\u201d), jer te\u0161ko da je samom Krivokapi\u0107u, ne ulaze\u0107i u njegov li\u010dni stav o Srebrenici, u interesu da ljulja svoju, ionako poljuljanu, Vladu.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Vladimir Leposavi\u0107, ministar pravde u Vladi Crne Gore<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Mogu\u0107 scenario<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Odatle sledi glavnina na\u0161e analize koja ima za cilj da poku\u0161a da objasni i eventualno da predvidi dalja zbivanja na unutra\u0161njem planu crnogorske politike. Najpre imamo prvo ra\u010dvanje mogu\u0107ih scenarija. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

U prvom scenariju, ministar Leposavi\u0107 sam podnosi ostavku pre nego \u0161to cela stvar do\u0111e do Skup\u0161tine.<\/strong> U tom slu\u010daju, premijer Krivokapi\u0107 prolazi povoljno jer se cela stvar re\u0161ava brzo i relativno \u010disto bez daljih komplikacija i ve\u0107ih previranja. Ovaj scenario ponajvi\u0161e zavisi od toga da li je ministar Leposavi\u0107 spreman da pru\u017ei otpor i da se upusti u dalju konfrontaciju sa premijerom. \u010cinjenica da skup\u0161tinska ve\u0107ina nije homogena (ni) po ovom pitanju kao i stav ve\u0107ine gra\u0111ana u Crnoj Gori po pitanju genocida, pove\u0107ava mogu\u0107nost da do ovog scenarija ne do\u0111e ali zbog ve\u0107 pomenutog li\u010dnog momenta, mo\u017eemo re\u0107i da je \u0161ansa da do ovog scenarija do\u0111e osrednja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Drugi scenario predvi\u0111a skup\u0161tinsko odlu\u010divanje o razre\u0161enju i donosi mnogo ve\u0107e komplikacije<\/strong>. Me\u0111u tri konstituenta skup\u0161tinske ve\u0107ine, sli\u010dno kao i ranije, postoje razli\u010diti stavovi. DF je odmah najavio da \u0107e stati u odbranu ministra Leposavi\u0107a, Demokrate, koje su jo\u0161 od izbora u Nik\u0161i\u0107u u svojevrsnom Hladnom ratu sa DF-om, koji ovih dana biva sve topliji, posredno su poru\u010dile da ne\u0107e smenjivati ministra uz pomo\u0107 opozicije3, dok se od URE, na prvi pogled, mo\u017ee o\u010dekivati da glasa za smenu ali ipak ne treba \u017euriti za stavom da \u0107e do toga sigurno i do\u0107i. I tu dolazimo do prve ve\u0107e komplikacije. U tom slu\u010daju za smenu ministra bili bi potrebni glasovi opozicionih poslanika da nadomeste glasove DF-a i Demokrata<\/strong>. Iako URA deli stav sa biv\u0161im re\u017eimom po pitanju Srebrenice, njihovi poslanici na\u0107i \u0107e se pred kalkulisanjem da li se svrstati uz biv\u0161u vlast protiv svoje Vlade zarad ideolo\u0161ke ispravnosti ili rizikovati da ne podr\u017ee svoj stav po pitanju Srebrenice zarad stabilnosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Odatle proizilazi drugo ra\u010dvanje mogu\u0107ih scenarija. U prvom scenariju, URA procenjuje da joj se isplati da po cenu stabilnosti Vlade, zajedno sa biv\u0161im re\u017eimom, smeni ministra Leposavi\u0107a i zadr\u017ei svoju ideolo\u0161ku \u010distotu.<\/strong> U tom slu\u010daju, za o\u010dekivati je da, najpre, premijer Krivokapi\u0107 izgubi legitimitet u velikoj meri. Opozicija bi, na krilima ostvarenih rezultata u Nik\u0161i\u0107u stekla dalji impuls, dok bi URA u o\u010dima glasa\u010da DF-a i Demokrata jo\u0161 vi\u0161e dobila negativan prizvuk, ali me\u0111u svojim bira\u010dima ostaje na pribli\u017eno istoj poziciji na kojoj je i bila. Odatle se, pod uslovom da Vlada ne padne, otvara pitanje zamene za ministra Leposavi\u0107a<\/strong>. U tom slu\u010daju, DF a najverovatnije i Demokrate ne\u0107e prihvatiti da popune upra\u017enjeno mesto kao neki vid kompenzacije (tako ne\u0161to bi bilo sli\u010dno situaciji kada je trebalo da se na\u0111e trener u KK Partizan koji bi zamenio oteranog Vujo\u0161evi\u0107a), tako da mesto ostaje prepu\u0161teno ili drugom nestrana\u010dkom ekspertu koji bi morao da sedne na u\u017earenu stolicu ili kadru URE, \u0161to bi verovatno jo\u0161 vi\u0161e antagonizovalo ovu partiju pred ostatkom re\u017eimskih bira\u010da.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ipak, za pretpostaviti je da, iako se URA sla\u017ee sa biv\u0161im re\u017eimom po pitanju Srebrenice, njenim glasa\u010dima to pitanje nije prioritet dok pitanje otklona od biv\u0161eg re\u017eima jeste, bar u ve\u0107oj meri. <\/strong>Kada se na to doda i mogu\u0107nost da njihovi glasa\u010di mogu u nekom trenutku da se opredele i za Demokrate usled razo\u010daranosti, sve to nam govori da su \u0161anse da URA glasa za smenu male.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kao modus vivendi mogla bi se pojaviti uzdr\u017eanost na glasanju, \u0161to se mo\u017ee o\u010dekivati i od Demokrata. <\/strong>Ovakvo postupanje moglo bi biti najbolja opcija za URU i Demokrate te se najvi\u0161e mo\u017ee i o\u010dekivati. U tom slu\u010daju ministra ne smenjuju poslanici, premijer Krivokapi\u0107 gubi legitimitet u velikoj meri, DF, ako uspe da se profili\u0161e kao za\u0161titnik ministra Leposavi\u0107a dobija na rejtingu dok URA i Demokrate ostaju neo\u0161te\u0107ene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na kraju, iz tog scenarija, izni\u010de, za ovu analizu, poslednje ra\u010dvanje. Ili \u0107e Krivokapi\u0107 iskoristiti mehanizam koji je dosta prikriveno spominjao na konferenciji za medije da ipak smeni ministra, \u0161to \u0107e sigurno dovesti do daljeg pada njegovog rejtinga<\/strong>, a \u0161to \u0107e mo\u017eda poku\u0161ati da nadoknadi ponovnim pribli\u017eavanjem Demokratama kao pred izbore u Nik\u0161i\u0107u, samo \u0161to je pitanje koliko \u0107e se u tom slu\u010daju Demokratama isplatiti da ga imaju uz sebe, ili \u0107e odustati od cele avanture, \u010demu vrlo lako i verovatno mo\u017ee kumovati uslovljavanje od strane DF-a. U tom slu\u010daju, premijer \u0107e izgledati slabo a rejting \u0107e mu verovatno i u tom slu\u010daju opasti. <\/strong>Tako\u0111e, u slu\u010daju smene ministra, ponovo se vra\u0107amo na pitanje izbora zamene za Leposavi\u0107a \u0161to sve zajedno nam govori da je ova varijanta malo verovatna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Koje zaklju\u010dke mo\u017eemo izvesti?<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Zaklju\u010dci koje bismo mogli izvesti iz ovoga su ti da Krivokapi\u0107a u svakom scenariju \u010deka pad rejtinga, samo je pitanje u kolikoj meri.<\/strong> Shodno tome, \u0161to se vi\u0161e bude komplikovala i odu\u017eivala cela pri\u010da sa Leposavi\u0107em to \u0107e stvar biti gora po Krivokapi\u0107a. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sa druge strane, DF ima \u0161ansu da popravi svoj rejting dok \u0107e se URA ponovo na\u0107i pred velikom kalkulacijom.<\/strong> Ukoliko Abazovi\u0107eva stranka zajedno sa opozicijom smeni Leposavi\u0107a, bi\u0107e jasno da iza cele bure upravo stoji Abazovi\u0107. Ipak, kako bi takav nastup lako mogao da im se obije o glavu i nije im u interesu, mo\u017eemo pretpostaviti da ipak URA nije pokreta\u010d svega, iako se ne bi bunili kada bi videli le\u0111a Vladimiru Leposavi\u0107u. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iz toga proisti\u010de zaklju\u010dak da iza svega zapravo stoji \u201ctre\u0107a strana\u201d koja je zainteresovana da destabilizuje trenutnu vlast kao pokaznu ve\u017ebu \u0161ta se de\u0161ava kada se dovode u pitanje nametnute fundamentalne vrednosti ovda\u0161njeg me\u0111unarodnog poretka.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izvori:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1 https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/1085970928230025\/videos\/2978773592399226 <\/a>(pristupljeno 5.4.2021.)
2 https:\/\/www.vijesti.me\/vijesti\/politika\/525435\/abazovic-u-srebrenici-se-dogodio-genocid-ko-ovo-ne-razumije-nije-mu-mjesto-na-drzavnim-funkcijama<\/a> (pristupljeno 5.4.2021.)
3 https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/demokratskacrnagora\/photos\/a.1420924501549789\/2639007639741463\/<\/a> (pristupljeno 5.4.2021.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Previranjima na političkoj sceni Crne Gore, čini se, nikada kraja. Tako nešto je i bilo<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":3988,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[497,2,4],"tags":[591,596,22,539,593,592,587,588,124,594],"class_list":["post-3985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-autorski-tekst-stavovi","category-mladi-i-politika","category-stavovi","tag-abazovic","tag-becic","tag-crna-gora","tag-demokrate","tag-df","tag-dps","tag-krivokapic","tag-ministar-leposavic","tag-popularno","tag-ura"],"yoast_head":"\nSlavoljub Tri\u0161i\u0107: ALGORITAM CRNOGORSKE POLITIKE – Pokreni<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Previranjima na politi\u010dkoj sceni Crne Gore, \u010dini se, nikada kraja. 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