{"id":4611,"date":"2021-06-05T12:59:43","date_gmt":"2021-06-05T10:59:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/?p=4611"},"modified":"2021-06-05T12:59:48","modified_gmt":"2021-06-05T10:59:48","slug":"aleksandar-djokic-o-dogovoru-beograda-i-pristine-i-sirenju-panike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/index.php\/2021\/06\/05\/aleksandar-djokic-o-dogovoru-beograda-i-pristine-i-sirenju-panike\/","title":{"rendered":"Aleksandar \u0110oki\u0107: O dogovoru Beograda i Pri\u0161tine i \u0161irenju panike"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mnogi su ve\u0107 krenuli u dramati\u010dna zaklinjanja nikada ne\u0107emo priznati Kosovo, pritisnuti smo sa svih strana, do\u0161ao je trenutak da svako poka\u017ee ko je vera, a ko ne vera, i tome sli\u010dno. Zaista, <strong>postoji nekoliko indikatora koji mogu upu\u0107ivati na to da \u0107e predsedniku Srbije Aleksandru Vu\u010di\u0107u ove godine biti ispostavljen ultimatum o tzv. \u201eme\u0111usobnom ili uzajamnom priznanju\u201c izme\u0111u Republike Srbije i Republike Kosova*.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/palmer-i-vucic-1-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4613\" width=\"750\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/palmer-i-vucic-1-1.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/palmer-i-vucic-1-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/palmer-i-vucic-1-1-768x511.jpg 768w, https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/palmer-i-vucic-1-1-16x12.jpg 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><figcaption><br>Foto: Tanjug\/Dragan Kujund\u017ei\u0107<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prvo, <strong>u javnost su plasirani raznorazni non-pejperi<\/strong>, gde je glavna tema izmena granica na Balkanu. Drugo, <strong>premijerka Srbije Ana Brnabi\u0107 izjavila je na Delfi forumu u Gr\u010dkoj da je Prespanski sporazum izme\u0111u Gr\u010dke i Makedonije dobar primer za re\u0161avanje problema izme\u0111u Srbije i Kosova. <\/strong>Tre\u0107e, <strong>zapadni predstavnici Miroslav Laj\u010dak i Metju Palmer spominjali su mogu\u0107nost postizanja dogovora ve\u0107 ove godin<\/strong>e. \u010cetvrto, <strong>patrijarh Porfirije je na sastanku sa Palmerom i Laj\u010dakom izjavio da \u201ekroz dijalog treba i\u0107i ka evropskom re\u0161enju, koje je u duhu Evropske unije, gde granice omek\u0161avaju i postaju manje va\u017ene\u201c.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Istina je da se ovi indikatori mogu protuma\u010diti kao da Srbiju o\u010dekuje poslednji \u010das.<\/strong> Non-pejperi mogu biti shva\u0107eni kao probni balon, kojim se meri spremnost gra\u0111ana Srbije da se odreknu dela svoje teritorije, Prespanski sporazum se u srpsko-kosovskom kontekstu mo\u017ee tuma\u010diti kao me\u0111usobno priznanje Srbije i Kosova*, poruke zapadnih zvani\u010dnika o mogu\u0107em dogovoru izme\u0111u Beograda i Pri\u0161tine ove godine mogu biti shva\u0107ene kao postizanje kona\u010dnog dogovora u okviru procesa Briselskih pregovora, dok izjava patrijarha mo\u017ee zvu\u010dati kao da relativizuje zna\u010daj teritorijalnog integriteta Srbije.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Najpre da defini\u0161emo pojam priznanja Kosova<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ne postoji nijedna velika sila, me\u0111unarodna ili nadnacionalna organizacija, tajni ili javni centar mo\u0107i koji od Republike Srbije zahteva eksplicitno priznanje Republike Kosova<em>. Od Srbije se od strane EU (koja zvani\u010dno ne priznaje Kosovo<\/em>, ali \u010diji centar \u010dine dr\u017eave koje ga priznaju, pa u skladu sa time trasiraju putanju pregovora) i SAD-a zahteva dopu\u0161tanje ulaska Kosova* u Ujedinjene nacije, putem \u010dega ono postaje de jure me\u0111unarodno priznata dr\u017eava. Eksplicitno priznanje Kosova* od strane Srbije je nepotrebno i nepo\u017eeljno za Zapad, jer bi destabilizovalo Srbiju i dobar deo Balkana bez nu\u017ede. Direktno priznanje Kosova* uop\u0161te nije u igri i mo\u017ee postati realnost tek posle toga kada Kosovo* postane de jure me\u0111unarodno priznata dra\u017eva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Metju Palmer<\/strong>, koga je za ameri\u010dkog guvernera Zapadnog Balkana postavio Donald Tramp, sam je objasnio \u0161ta se od Srbije tra\u017ei i o\u010dekuje u budu\u0107nosti: \u201eSAD vide me\u0111usobno priznanje kao ishod koji kona\u010dno ostavlja ovu temu u pro\u0161losti, i stavlja Srbiju i Kosovo u poziciju da krenu napred.\u201c Naravno, sintagma me\u0111usobno priznanje zvu\u010di apsurdno, jer Republika Srbija je ve\u0107 me\u0111unarodno priznata nezavisna dr\u017eava, dok je Republika Kosovo* delimi\u010dno priznata samoprogla\u0161ena politi\u010dka tvorevina, koja de fakto funkcioni\u0161e kao dr\u017eava sa ograni\u010denim suverenitetom, jer je pod prismotrom Nema\u010dke i Sjedinjenih Dr\u017eava.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Termin \u201eme\u0111usobno priznanje\u201c <\/strong>se koristi zato \u0161to zvu\u010di prihvatljivije, marketin\u0161ki je uspe\u0161nije od termina \u201eprihvatanje da Republika Kosovo* postane de jure suverena dr\u017eava, bez neposrednog priznanja od strane Republike Srbije\u201c. Ne samo \u0161to je kra\u0107e, nego i deluje manje kao katalizator za proteste koji vode u destabilizaciju. U slu\u010daju zaklju\u010divanja Va\u0161ingonskog sporazuma kada su se u prisustvu Aleksandra Vu\u010di\u0107a predstavnici SAD-a i Kosova* dogovorili da Izrael prizna nezavisnost Kosova*, kori\u0161\u0107en je isti termin \u201eme\u0111usobno priznanje\u201c. <strong>Ova \u010darobna uzajamnost priznavnja u ranijem periodu je nazivana modelom \u201edve Nema\u010dke<\/strong>\u201c, ali je to zvu\u010dalo previ\u0161e pokroviteljski za Nema\u010dku, kao da ona uzima svu odgovornost na sebe. Pritom je imalo jo\u0161 manje smisla jer Srbi i Albanci nisu deo iste nacije, kao \u0161to su bili isto\u010dni i zapadni Nemci.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Da li \u0107e do\u0107i do okon\u010danja Briselsk<\/strong>og procesa?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Moj stav je da se ove godine ne\u0107e do\u0107i do okon\u010danja Briselskog pregovornog procesa, niti \u0107e do\u0107i do ulaska Kosova* u UN<\/strong>. Moj pogled na \u010ditav proces je strukturalisti\u010dki, \u0161to zna\u010di da se moraju ispuniti odre\u0111eni zahtevi pre nego \u0161to mo\u017ee do\u0107i do okon\u010danja pregovornog procesa. Glavni zahtev jeste kompenzacija za bilo kog politi\u010dkog lidera u Srbiji kako bi on zauzvrat dopustio ulazak Kosova* u UN. Sekundarna hipoteza jeste da Vu\u010di\u0107ev re\u017eim ne mo\u017ee da spinuje ulazak Kosova* u UN kao svoju diplomatsku pobedu putem izmi\u0161ljene kompenzacije, kao \u0161to je recimo formiranje Zajednice srpskih op\u0161tina. Kompenzacija se, naravno, mo\u017ee shvatiti i striktno materijalno, da neki lider tra\u017ei novac za priznanje, ali to onda zna\u010di i odricanje od vlasti u Srbiji i ve\u010dno izgnanstvo u neke evropske nadnacionalne institucije. Da li vam deluje da bi jedan neuravnote\u017een \u010dovek opijen mo\u0107i, kao \u0161to je Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107, bio spreman na jednu takvu racionalnu pogodbu? Mogu\u0107nost da zadovolji sve svoje psihi\u010dke i percipirane fizi\u010dke nedostatke putem vlasti, mnogo je potentnija od bilo koje materijalne nagrade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kompenzacija se mo\u017ee shvatiti i manje koruptivno<\/strong>, kao neki ustupak Srbiji, neki konkretan uspeh sa kojim se mo\u017ee iza\u0107i pred bira\u010de i pokazati im da je za njih korisno \u0161to \u0107e Kosovo* u\u0107i u UN, a da \u0107e njihova percipirana nacionalna \u010dast ostati netaknuta jer Srbija ne\u0107e direktno priznati Kosovo* (u datom trenutku). Postoje tri mogu\u0107a vida ove kompenzacije: 1. teritorijalni, \u0161to je poku\u0161avao da izgura Tramp, ali je bio blokiran od drugih me\u0111unarodnih \u010dinilaca; 2. evrointegracioni, Srbija postaje deo Evropske unije; 3. investiciono-finansijski, Srbija postaje popri\u0161te masivnog ulaganja inostranog kapitala. Iako istra\u017eivanja javnog mnjenja govore protiv teze da bi gra\u0111ani Srbije \u010dak i u slu\u010daju realne kompenzacije bili spremni da podr\u017ee ovakvo re\u0161enje, moj je stav da bi bilo koju od ove tri kompenzacije bilo sasvim mogu\u0107e marketin\u0161ki spinovati kao veliku pobedu sada\u0161njeg re\u017eima. Dovoljan pokazatelj za to je Briselski sporazum, koji nikako nije na\u0161kodio rejtingu Aleksandra Vu\u010di\u0107a, \u0161tavi\u0161e, on je nakon toga dalje u\u010dvrstio svoju vlast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Da li kompenzacija dolazi u obzir?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Glavno pitanje jeste da li postoje uslovi za ijedan vid kompenzacije u datom trenutku? Teritorijalna nadoknada ne dolazi u obzir, to je stopirano jo\u0161 za vreme Trampa, jer bi otvorilo Pandorinu kutiju teritorijalnih potra\u017eivanja na Balkanu, \u0161to bi dovelo do destabilizacije Balkana i pove\u0107anja ruskog i kineskog uticaja. Ako kompenzacija treba da predupredi potencijalnu destabilizaciju Srbije izazvanu dopu\u0161tanjem ulaska Kosova* u UN \u201ena suvo\u201c, onda koja je poenta u kori\u0161\u0107enju takve vrste kompenzacije koja i sama generi\u0161e drugi vid destabilizacije? Evrointegraciona nadoknada je mogu\u0107a, ali na du\u017ee staze. EU je u fazi previranja i transformacije, gde postoje ve\u0107e \u0161anse da \u0107e opstati, nego da \u0107e se dezintegrisati, ali nije u stanju da prima nove \u010dlanice i naru\u0161ava i tako neuravnote\u017eeno stanje dono\u0161enja odluka na evropskom nivou. Investiciona kompenzacija zvu\u010di najrealisti\u010dnije, ali je te\u0161ko poverovati da je ona mogu\u0107a u okolnostima ekonomske krize izazvane merama protiv koronavirusne epidemije.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Po\u0161to realne kompenzacije nisu mogu\u0107e na kratki rok, onda nije mogu\u0107 ni dogovor koji bi dozvolio stupanje Kosova* u UN<\/strong>. Kako onda rastuma\u010diti \u010detiri pokazatelja sa po\u010detka teksta? 1. Non-pejperi nisu probni balon za pripremanje gra\u0111ana Srbije za odricanje od Kosova i Metohije, ve\u0107 se koriste kao nagove\u0161taj za stvaranje Velike Srbije, \u0161to podi\u017ee Vu\u010di\u0107u rejting; 2. Prespanski sporazum se mo\u017ee tuma\u010diti samo kao spremnost za nastavak pregovora, koji su bili zamrznuti za vreme politi\u010dke krize na Kosovu; 3. Palmer i Laj\u010dak ne govore o postizanju kona\u010dnog dogovora, ve\u0107 jednog u nizu sporazuma kojim se Srbija odri\u010de svojih funkcija na Kosovu (Na konstataciju beogradskog lista da Srbija ne priznaje Kosovo, Palmer ka\u017ee da to razume i da to nije ne\u0161to od \u010dega se po\u010dinje. \u201ePo\u010dinje se od identifikovanja klju\u010dnih tema kao \u0161to su nestale osobe, sloboda kretanja\u201c, ka\u017ee Palmer.); 4. Patrijarh nije relativizovao granice Srbije, ve\u0107 je istakao \u010dinjenicu da procesi integracija imaju primat u XXI veku, \u0161to va\u017ei i za Pri\u0161tinu, koliko i za Beograd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0160ire\u0107i paniku \u010dinimo uslugu re\u017eimu<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u0160ire\u0107i paniku u ovom trenutku, pre nego \u0161to je zaklju\u010den jo\u0161 jedan u nizu provizorni me\u0111udogovor na putu \u201eme\u0111usobnog priznanja\u201c, jedino \u010dinimo uslugu aktuelnom re\u017eimu<\/strong>, koji \u0107e do kraja godine iza\u0107i sa jednim sporazumom, koji ne\u0107e zna\u010diti \u201euzajamno priznanje\u201c, koji \u0107e svakako biti negativan po Srbiju, jer je \u010ditav Briselski proces pregovora isklju\u010divo negativan po na\u0161u stranu i tako je od po\u010detka koncipiran, ali \u010dije \u0107e lo\u0161e strane biti ubla\u017eene konstatacijom da barem nije priznato Kosovo*. Kako ne bismo upali u zamku de\u010daka koji je vikao vuk, da bi na koncu obesmislio realnu opanost koja mu je pretila, vreme je da krenemo da posmatramo stvari \u0161ire i racionalno.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Drugo, treba vi\u0161e poverenja imati u narod, koji ne naseda na Vu\u010di\u0107ev politi\u010dki marketing iz sopstvene gluposti, ve\u0107 zbog nedostatka privla\u010dne opozicione ponude i zato \u0161to po pitanju Kosmeta od po\u010detka dr\u017ei crvenu liniju na priznanju Kosova<em>, \u0161to podrazumeva i neprihvatanje ulaska Kosova<\/em> u UN. Narod \u0107e umeti da kazni svaku krajnje pogre\u0161nu odluku, otuda hipoteza da se narod ne mo\u017ee prevariti formiranjem ZSO u zamenu za ulazak Kosova* u UN. Razumljivo je da opozicija na mah kre\u0107e da vi\u010de \u201eVu\u010di\u0107 \u0107e priznati Kosovo*\u201c, tako se zara\u0111uju jeftini politi\u010dki poeni u datom trenutku, treba kritikovati poteze re\u017eima su\u0161tinski i ne praviti ih gorim nego \u0161to jesu, po\u0161to su ve\u0107 dovoljno lo\u0161i.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mnogi su ve&#263; krenuli u dramati&#269;na zaklinjanja nikada ne&#263;emo priznati Kosovo, pritisnuti smo sa svih<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":4612,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[497,4],"tags":[300,39,696],"class_list":["post-4611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-autorski-tekst-stavovi","category-stavovi","tag-beograd-i-pristina","tag-kosovo","tag-palmer"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Aleksandar \u0110oki\u0107: O dogovoru Beograda i Pri\u0161tine i \u0161irenju panike &#8211; 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