{"id":6211,"date":"2022-04-11T10:08:45","date_gmt":"2022-04-11T08:08:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/?p=6211"},"modified":"2022-04-11T10:56:59","modified_gmt":"2022-04-11T08:56:59","slug":"rat-u-ukrajini-sta-je-pobeda-a-sta-poraz-rusije","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/index.php\/2022\/04\/11\/rat-u-ukrajini-sta-je-pobeda-a-sta-poraz-rusije\/","title":{"rendered":"RAT U UKRAJINI: \u0160ta je pobeda, a \u0161ta poraz Rusije?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>U poslednjoj nedelji svedoci smo zatvaranja severnog Kijevskog fronta kada je u pitanju rat u Ukrajini. Organizovano povla\u010denje ruskih trupa podstaklo je mnoge da se pitaju da li se radi o porazu ili je sve deo neke velike strategije.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"688\" src=\"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/\u043a\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430-\u0440\u0430\u0442-\u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0458\u0438\u043d\u0430-\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438\u0458\u0430-1-1024x688.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6215\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/\u043a\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430-\u0440\u0430\u0442-\u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0458\u0438\u043d\u0430-\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438\u0458\u0430-1-1024x688.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/\u043a\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430-\u0440\u0430\u0442-\u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0458\u0438\u043d\u0430-\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438\u0458\u0430-1-300x202.jpg 300w, https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/\u043a\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430-\u0440\u0430\u0442-\u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0458\u0438\u043d\u0430-\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438\u0458\u0430-1-768x516.jpg 768w, https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/\u043a\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430-\u0440\u0430\u0442-\u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0458\u0438\u043d\u0430-\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438\u0458\u0430-1-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/\u043a\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430-\u0440\u0430\u0442-\u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0458\u0438\u043d\u0430-\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0438\u0458\u0430-1.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Karta trenutnog ratnog stanja u Ukrajini, (Foto: <a href=\"https:\/\/zurnal.me\/sta-je-pobjeda-a-sta-poraz-rusije-u-ukr\/\">Zurnal.me<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prvo \u0161to je va\u017eno razumeti jeste da <strong>nijedna dr\u017eava svesno ne ulazi u vojni sukob bez vi\u0161e razra\u0111enih strategija<\/strong>, planova, koji sadr\u017ee alternativne razvoje situacije. Drugo \u0161to treba shvatiti jeste da <strong><strong>rat nije kompjuterska igrica<\/strong><\/strong> i da se ne mo\u017ee vratiti na prethodno sa\u010duvanu ta\u010dku, gre\u0161ke su neizbrisive i gre\u0161ke su \u010desto i neizbe\u017ene, gre\u0161ke iniciraju promenu strategije i okretanje alternativnim planovima. Tre\u0107e \u2013 u savremenom ratu gde se dve armije ne susre\u0107u na bojnom polju da odmere svoje snage, ve\u0107 se vode borbe iza utvr\u0111enih polo\u017eaja, u urbanim uslovima, iz zaseda i tome sli\u010dno, <strong>termini kao \u0161to su pobeda i poraz ne mogu se odrediti na ni\u017eem, takti\u010dkom, nivou, ve\u0107 samo na vi\u0161em, strate\u0161kom<\/strong>. \u010cetvrto, <strong>po\u0161to su pobede i porazi strate\u0161ke kategorije, oni se mogu jedino proceniti na osnovu ispunjenja ili neispunjenja ratnih ciljeva<\/strong>, a naposletku i na osnovu ta\u010daka mirovnog sporazuma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"has-text-color wp-block-heading\" style=\"color:#1b75bc\"><strong><strong>Rat u Ukrajini nije kompjuterska igrica<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pred sobom imamo \u010dinjenicu, potvr\u0111enu i iz zapadnih, ukrajinskih i ruskih izvora, da se ruska vojska povukla sa severa Ukrajine. Prvi put je to ruska strana zvani\u010dno priznala u toku pregovornog procesa 29. marta kada je \u201ekao znak dobre volje\u201c najavila drasti\u010dnu deeskalaciju na severnom frontu oko Kijeva i \u010cernigova. U realnosti, ruska vojska je na tom frontu bila blokirana i nije napredovala ve\u0107 neko vreme (du\u017eina vremena u ratu koji traje oko 40 dana je relativna, jer se doga\u0111aji odvijaju veoma brzo). <strong>Taj deo fronta je postao besperspektivan<\/strong>, to jest ruska vojska nije bila u stanju da sa raspolo\u017eivom silom nastavi napredak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mo\u017eemo sporiti oko toga \u0161ta je uop\u0161te bio vojni cilj date grupe, ali ta\u010dan odgovor u ovom trenutku ne mo\u017eemo dobiti, jer nema zvani\u010dne potvrde informacije. <strong>U opticaju su tri verzije<\/strong>: prva, Kijev je trebalo da bude zauzet brzim desantom kroz taktiku Trojanskog konja (deo ukrajinske vojne i politi\u010dke elite trebalo je da pre\u0111e na stranu Rusije i da preda glavni grad Ukrajine); druga, Kijev nije trebalo da bude zauzet ve\u0107 okru\u017een i dr\u017ean pod opsadom kako bi ukrajinsko rukovodstvo bilo pod pritiskom da kapitulira, a ruska strana imala ja\u010di adut prilikom vo\u0111enja pregovora (taktika Vojske Republike Srpske pri opsadi Sarajeva); tre\u0107a, ruske jedinice su kori\u0161\u0107ene da se ukrajinska armija \u0161to vi\u0161e rastegne i da tako isto\u010dni Donbaski front ostane ranjiv za rusku ofanzivu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"has-text-color wp-block-heading\" style=\"color:#1b75bc\">Neispunjeni ciljevi<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Posle povla\u010denja ruskih jedinica mo\u017eemo konstatovati da <strong>nijedan od ciljeva sve tri verzije nije ispunjen<\/strong>: Kijev nije pao, Kijev nije bio okru\u017een, Donbaski front nije bio probijen, ako je sve bilo distrakcija. Rusko vojno i politi\u010dko rukovodstvo donele su jedinu pravilnu odluku \u2013 povu\u0107i trupe sa besperspektivnog fronta, koje su bile izlo\u017eene konstantnim ukrajinskim kontranapadima, pregrupisati ih i deo vojnika i tehnike prebaciti na Donbaski front. <strong>Da li je to poraz ili ne odlu\u010di\u0107e borbe na isto\u010dnom frontu<\/strong>. Ukoliko do\u0111e do odlu\u010dnog vojnog uspeha na tom delu fronta, onda \u0107e ukidanje severnog fronta biti inteligentan manevar u cilju o\u010duvanja trupa za va\u017enije rati\u0161te, ako se na Donbaskom frontu nastavi sporo i postepeno napredovanje, to jest sada\u0161nje stanje ostaje nepromenjeno, onda \u0107e to zna\u010diti da zatvaranje severnog fronta nije donelo strate\u0161ku prednost ruskoj vojsci, ali barem jeste za\u0161titilo besmisleno isturene jedinice koje bi vrlo verovatno sa dolaskom prole\u0107a bile i same okru\u017eene (\u0161to bi ve\u0107 predstavljalo pravu katastrofu i u vojnom, i u politi\u010dkom smislu).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u0160ta je to pobeda u rusko-ukrajinskom ratu uop\u0161te je te\u0161ko odrediti.<\/strong> Ruska strana je namerno na po\u010detku zadala uop\u0161tene ciljeve ba\u0161 zbog toga da ni njeni gra\u0111ani, ni zapadne sile ne bi posle okon\u010danja rata mogli decidno da ka\u017eu da li se radi o porazu ili pobedi. Sam Kremlj je to ostavio sebi na tuma\u010denje. <strong>Pored jasnog cilja vojne neutralnosti Ukrajine, fakti\u010dki njenog odustajanja od stupanja u NATO, svi ostali ciljevi su uop\u0161teni do krajnjih granica<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"has-text-color wp-block-heading\" style=\"color:#1b75bc\">\u0160ta zna\u010di denacifikacija? <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mo\u017ee biti bilo \u0161ta, od zbacivanja re\u017eima u Kijevu, preko zabrane ultradesni\u010darskih partija i bataljona u Ukrajini, do prepisivanja istorijskih ud\u017ebenika. Kao \u0161to vidimo u vojnom smislu ovi ciljevi se prostiru od zauzimanja Kijeva do prostog dogovora na pregovorima gde Ukrajina zadr\u017eava svoju subjektivnost i vlast. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u0160ta zna\u010di za\u0161tita \u201enaroda Donbasa\u201c?<\/strong> To mo\u017ee biti priznanje nezavisnosti Donbasa od strane Ukrajine, a mo\u017ee zna\u010diti prosto odvo\u0111enje ukrajinskih trupa iz Donbasa bez kona\u010dnog re\u0161enja njegovog statusa (povla\u010denje Milo\u0161evi\u0107a sa Kosova 1999. godine). <strong>\u0160ta zna\u010di demilitarizacija?<\/strong> Smanjenje ukrajinske armije do malog broja vojnika, oduzimanje svog te\u0161kog naoru\u017eanja i tehnike ili samo ofanzivnog strate\u0161kog naoru\u017eanja, a mo\u017eda je dovoljno \u0161to je ruska armija raketama i vazdu\u0161nim napadima razru\u0161ila veliki broj vojnih aerodroma i baza u Ukrajini?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/zurnal.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/marija-zaharova.jpg\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><figcaption>Marija Zaharova, (Foto: IN4S)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marija Zaharova, portparol Ministarstva spoljnih poslova Ruske Federacije, izjavila je prvog dana rata, 25. februara, da je cilj ruske operacije u Ukrajini <strong>\u201eprivo\u0111enje odgovornosti ukrajinskog marionetskog re\u017eima koji je godinama \u010dinio zlo\u010dine protiv mirnih gra\u0111ana\u201c.<\/strong> Ova izjava implicira zarobljavanje i svrgavanje aktuelne ukrajinske vlasti na \u010delu sa Vladimirom Zelenskim i su\u0111enje istoj za ratne zlo\u010dine u Donbasu. <strong>Taj cilj je jedino mogao biti ostvaren kroz zauzimanje Kijeva, do \u010dega nije do\u0161lo<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Istog dana kada su ruski pregovara\u010di u Istanbulu najavili napredak u pregovorima sa ukrajinskom stranom i fakti\u010dki najavili povla\u010denje sa severnog fronta,<strong> Ramzan Kadirov, borbeni lider \u010ce\u010dena, <\/strong>istupio je sa izjavom da \u201etreba u\u0107i u Kijev i zauzeti ga\u201c. Valja i napomenuti da su predstavnici Kremlja u prvim danima rata prinudili ukrajinske pregovara\u010de da vode pregovore u Belorusiji, sa \u010dije se teritorije delimi\u010dno vodi rat u Ukrajini, i to ba\u0161 u Belove\u0161koj \u0161umi, gde su 1991. godine predstavnici Rusije, Ukrajine i Belorusije potpisali sporazum koji je stavio ta\u010dku na postojanje SSSR-a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"has-text-color wp-block-heading\" style=\"color:#1b75bc\">Simbolika bitna<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Te\u0161ko je odupreti se utisku da je Rusija \u017eelela da ponovi scenu iz Drugog svetskog rata <\/strong>kada su Nemci primorali Francuze da potpi\u0161u kapitulaciju u istom vagonu, u okolini grada Kompjenja, u kojem su u Prvom svetskom ratu Francuzi primorali Nemce na kapitulaciju. <strong>Simbolika je veoma bitna<\/strong>, kako za javno mnjenje tako i za stvaranje budu\u0107ih istorijskih narativa. Sama \u010dinjenica da su pregovori kasnije preme\u0161teni iz Belorusije svedo\u010di o tome da je Ukrajina izdr\u017eala prvobitni nalet i da <strong>Rusija ve\u0107 ne mo\u017ee da joj ispostavlja zahteve u vidu ultimatuma<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>U skladu sa time, pobeda i poraz su termini koji \u0107e biti tuma\u010deni od razli\u010ditih aktera na razli\u010dit na\u010din<\/strong>. Predsednik Ukrajine Zelenski je ve\u0107 objavio pobedu Ukrajine u tom smislu da je uspe\u0161no odbranjena njena prestonica i da ona nije izgubila svoju nezavisnost. To jest, <strong>pobeda za Ukrajince mo\u017ee biti prosto da Ukrajina ostane da stoji na nogama<\/strong> posle jakih ruskih udaraca. U drugim navratima, Zelenski je isticao da bi totalna pobeda za Ukrajinu bila vra\u0107anje ruske vojske na po\u010detne polo\u017eaje, pre 24. februara, \u0161to svejedno zna\u010di Ukrajina bez Krima i najve\u0107eg dela Donbasa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ruski zvani\u010dnici su davali razli\u010dite izjave u skladu sa odvijanjem rata.<\/strong> Na po\u010detku je retorika bila agresivnija i obuhvatala je momentalnu kapitulaciju Ukrajine, ali su vremenom nivo agresivnosti i obim zahteva krenuli da se smanjuju. <strong>Do ovog trenutka zahtevi su, sude\u0107i po retorici, spu\u0161teni na vojno neutralni status Ukrajine (i sve \u0161to iz toga u vojnom smislu proizilazi), priznanje Krima kao dela Rusije i Donbasa kao nezavisnog od Ukrajine.<\/strong> Ukoliko ruska vojska kroz svoju novu strategiju u ratu ostvari velike pobede, ovi zahtevi ponovo mogu porasti. Sve zavisi od ratnih uspeha ili, pak, neuspeha. Trenutno je stanje na frontu neodre\u0111eno, mogu\u0107e je sporo napredovanje ruske vojske, a mogu\u0107 je i proboj fronta. Doga\u0111aji koji su pred nama \u0107e pokazati ishod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"has-text-color wp-block-heading\" style=\"color:#1b75bc\">Da li \u0107e na kraju svi proglasiti pobedu?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Na kraju svih krajeva, svaka strana \u0107e proglasiti pobedu, pitanje je samo da li \u0107e u to mo\u0107i da ubedi svoje javno mnjenje i da pritom ne izgubi popularnost.<\/strong> Gubitak popularnosti zna\u010di razo\u010daranje, a razo\u010daranje proizvodi politi\u010dku nestabilnost. Ovo je naro\u010dito bitno za Rusiju koja se pored velikih o\u010dekivanja od rata me\u0111u njenim stanovni\u0161tvom tako\u0111e nalazi pod velikim ekonomskim pritiskom. \u0160to je pobeda na kraju rata realnija to \u0107e i uticaj neminovnog sni\u017eenja \u017eivotnog standarda na politi\u010dku stabilnost biti manji.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"sabox-plus-item\"><div class=\"saboxplugin-wrap\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\" itemscope itemprop=\"author\"><div class=\"saboxplugin-tab\"><div class=\"saboxplugin-gravatar\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/aleksandar-djokic.jpg\" width=\"100\"  height=\"100\" alt=\"\" itemprop=\"image\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 100px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 100\/100;\"><\/div><div class=\"saboxplugin-authorname\"><a href=\"https:\/\/pokreni.rs\/index.php\/author\/aleksandar-djokic\/\" class=\"vcard author\" rel=\"author\"><span class=\"fn\">Aleksandar \u0110oki\u0107<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"saboxplugin-desc\"><div itemprop=\"description\"><p>Politikolog, asistent na Ruskom univerzitetu dru\u0161tva naroda (RUDN)<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><div class=\"clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Izvor: <a href=\"https:\/\/zurnal.me\/sta-je-pobjeda-a-sta-poraz-rusije-u-ukr\/\">Zurnal.me<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Naslovna fotografija: Mikhail Metzel\/TASS&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U poslednjoj nedelji svedoci smo zatvaranja severnog Kijevskog fronta kada je u pitanju rat u<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":6212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[497,4],"tags":[357,941,356,944],"class_list":["post-6211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-autorski-tekst-stavovi","category-stavovi","tag-putin","tag-rat-u-ukrajini","tag-rusija","tag-ukrajina"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>RAT U UKRAJINI: \u0160ta je pobeda, a \u0161ta poraz Rusije? &#8211; Pokreni<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"U poslednjoj nedelji svedoci smo zatvaranja severnog Kijevskog fronta rat u Ukrajini. 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